Jet Copies Narrative Essay Example

Jet Copies Narrative Essay Example Jet Copies Narrative Essay Jet Copies Narrative Essay Essay Topic: Narrative The JET Copies assignment is similar to the Bigelow Manufacturing Company machine breakdown example in the textbook. Hence the example was used as a guide. Days to Repair Simulation Process In simulating the number of days to repair, first a table was created based on the information given in the Repair time and Probability information table as found in the case. The created table was defined as â€Å"Lookup† in the array information for VLookup function in Microsoft Excel. Next, based on the probability information provided, a Cumulative Probability column was generated by adding the probability numbers given (each with the number above it) and distributing the probability to the number of possible repair days from 1-4. For example, a . 20 probability corresponds to 2 repair days. Next, simulating the repair times, random numbers were generated in Microsoft Excel, with the VLookup function referencing the â€Å"Lookup† table; and based on the range of the random number generated returns the associated number of repair day(s). Interval Between Successive Breakdowns Simulation Process According to the continuous distribution information provided, interval between successive breakdowns is 0-6 weeks. Based on the Bigelow Manufacturing example, the formula for continuous probability function for the time between breakdowns is f(x) =x/18, 0 x 6 weeks. To simulate the interval successive breakdowns, random numbers were generated and the result multiplied by 6 and Square root. This gives the number of weeks between machine breakdowns. Cumulative Time was also generated adding the result of the generated square root and stopping just a bit above 52 weeks for the one year simulation requirement. Lost Revenue Simulation Process An actual loss number was not provided according to the case. It only gave a range from 2000-8000 copies that they expect to sell per day at 10 cents each. It also indicates using a uniform probability in the same range. Based on this, a random number was generated between 2000 and 8000. Next the random number was multiplied by number of days to repair and . 10(cost of each copy). The adding up the total gives the total loss that could be expected in a year. Putting it Together The first step is working on the breakdown interval. This means generating the random numbers for the simulation with the Cumulative Time needed to run the simulation, in this case 1 year. Next step is adding the Repair Time assumption and simulating by generating the random numbers for this portion. The next process is generating the range numbers for calculating the loss revenue for the days the copier is down. Additionally, the number of repair times is multiplied by the cost of a copy and by the random number generated. This is done for each week until it is just about 52 weeks. Answer to the Case Study The Total Revenue that would be lost according to the simulation is $14,235. 20. JET Copies should purchase a backup copier since the simulated total lost revenue exceeds their threshold of $12,000. However, because this simulation was only conducted for a year, simulation for multiple years should be conducted and an average of these results examined as was the in the Bigelow Manufacturing example to accommodate for variations. Another option to explore is for JET Copies to obtain historical from other companies that have used the same copier outside of the University.